(Daily Signal) The Trump administration’s proposed changes to the 2030 U.S. census, to cease counting illegal immigrants, could boost congressional seats and electoral votes for battleground states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin at the expense of large states such as California and Texas, research suggests.
A 2024 study projected immigration trends under the Biden administration for the 2030 census, said Steven Camarota, director of research at the Center for Immigration Studies. Those projections would be altered by President Donald Trump’s existing crackdown on illegal immigration and could be reversed entirely under the census proposal.
“This census proposal could flip the dynamic,” Camarota told the Daily Signal. “Midwestern states would not lose as much, nor would Texas or California, which have large immigrant populations, both legal and illegal, gain as much.”
The current census model apportions congressional districts to states based on total population rather than total citizens. But the administration published a regulation in the Federal Register last month, now open for public comment, that would no longer count illegal aliens or legal residents with a status lower than a green card. The new rule would also eliminate questions on the form about race and sexual preference.